Delhi: State of Mobility 2023
Motorisation trend
Why this study?
In the last two decades, the population has increased in Delhi from 1.39 crore in 2001 to 1.64 crore in 2023, continuing a trend of slow, but steady growth. Increase in population calls for increase in attraction centres, job creation, and travel demand. Delhi added 64 per cent or roughly 1.65 crore new jobs in just 2022-23.
‘But with great population, comes great responsibility (of commuter practices)’. Unfortunately, that realisation has not set in still for Delhi even after countless severe episodes of population, and mind-numbing congestion…
Delhi’s personal vehicle odyssey
Up to 2016, Delhi saw a consistent rise in annual vehicle registrations. Post-2016, this trend leveled off for a couple of years. Then, a combination of the Indian automotive sector's downturn and the impact of the pandemic caused a significant 35% drop in these numbers.
Right after the pandemic, a strong recovery in 2022-23 increased numbers by a staggering 47%.
The scales have always been tipped towards personal vehicles. In the last decade, personal vehicles have managed the total mix of registrations. Two wheelers never went below the 60% mark, in the last decade, whereas the average share of cars registered is 27.8%.
So, 88% of the total registrations has only been personal vehicles since 2011.
In late 2020, Delhi came up with an EV policy with a target of every fourth vehicle to be electric by 2024, giving incentives over and above the central FAME subsidy incentives launched in 2015.
The share of electric cars jumped from 0.85% in 2019-20 to 6.35% in 2020-21. Similarly, electric two-wheeler took off with a jump from 4.07% in 2019-20 to 14.68% in 2020-21.
The impact of the pandemic was non-existent in the EV private segment (cars and two-wheelers).
Two-wheeler shares have since been on an exponential rising trend, currently sitting at 54.86% out of total EVs. Cars have also reached a 6.99% share in the total EV mix.
FAME I incentive money was largely being utilised by e-rickshaws, due to a flaw in the policy due to which lead acid battery vehicles get the same incentive as lithium-ion (li-ion) e-rickshaws. That was changed in 2019 when it was revised as FAME II allowing only li-ion battery vehicle registrations. Not to mention, the Delhi state electric vehicle policy also does not allow lead acid funding.
There are other problems with the e-rickshaw segment as well, such as lack of safety regulations, large informal
influence on manufacturing of this segment, to name a few. After the change, and a slightly higher focus now on other passenger segments, the e-rickshaw registrations thus reduced from 90-95% share among the electric segment in 2015-19 to currently 21%.
The Economic Survey of Delhi keeps track of on-road vehicles in the capital. The total on road vehicles in 2022-23 dropped by 54.76%, from 7,917,898 to 12,253,350 in absolute numbers.
This was due to the deregistration drive of Delhi government in January 2022 banning >10-year-old diesel and >15-year-old petrol vehicles to ply on NCT of Delhi’s roads. The decision was in compliance with the National Green Tribunal's (NGT) direction to reduce vehicle emissions in the city.
The transport department notes however, that although the vehicles have been deregistered, not all of them have stopped plying on the roads. About 7 lakh (0.7M) vehicles at present have taken an NOC for re-registrations in other states, and about 1 lakh (0.1M) have been scrapped. Delhi’s Traffic Police will impound and eventually scrap any such vehicle spotted.
The political will for electric vehicle adoption, and increased awareness among consumers, the electric vehicle sales have grown substantially. The average market share for EVs in the last 7 years has been about 57%, while for combustion engines, the average growth rate is merely 1.75%.
Key highlights from the data:
Vehicle Registration Trends in Delhi: Delhi experienced a steady increase in vehicle registrations up until 2016, followed by a period of stabilization. A subsequent decline was observed due to factors including the downturn in India's automotive sector and the pandemic's impact. However, there was a significant recovery in registration numbers post-pandemic.
Preference for Personal Vehicles: The last decade in Delhi has seen a heavy reliance on personal vehicles, particularly two-wheelers and cars, making up the lion's share of total vehicle registrations. This trend underscores the city's dependence on personal modes of transportation.
Shift Towards Electric Vehicles (EVs): The introduction of Delhi's EV policy aimed to increase the proportion of electric vehicles. This policy, coupled with central subsidy incentives, resulted in a marked increase in the registration of electric cars and two-wheelers. The EV segment, particularly private electric cars and two-wheelers, showed resilience and growth even during the pandemic.
Deregistration Drive and Environmental Compliance: The Delhi government initiated a drive to deregister older diesel and petrol vehicles as part of environmental compliance measures. This led to a significant decrease in the total number of on-road vehicles. Despite deregistration, a number of these vehicles are still in use, either re-registered in other states or awaiting scrappage.